Aaannd the gifts just keep on coming for Democrats in Arizona. The latest being the abortion-rights initiative officially winning a spot on the November ballot this week.
Organizers didn’t just eke out the bare number of signatures required to put the matter in voters’ hands. They crushed it, with a record 577,971 voters signing petitions to put it on the Nov. 5 ballot.
That’s nearly 200,000 more than the 383,923 signatures required, an excess roughly equivalent to the population of Tempe.
It is the largest number of certified signatures for any ballot measure in state history.
Lake's future may lie in young voters' hands
If you’re Donald Trump or Kari Lake, here in one of the nation’s battleground states that will decide both the presidential election and control of the Senate, you’re probably breaking out the Maalox.
Ditto for U.S. Reps. David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani, and any Republican lawmaker facing a competitive challenge as the party holds only a one-vote grip on each chamber of the Legislature.
Their futures could well be in the hands of a new crop of young, energized voters who haven’t paid much attention to politics.
Until now, that is.
“My almost 22-year-old daughter will be voting ‘for’ someone and something for the first time in her life,” Democratic consultant Stacy Pearson told me.
“She voted against Trump in ’20, against wackos and insurrectionists in ’22. She’s sincerely inspired to support the first female president and Prop. 139 (the abortion rights proposition). Polls can’t measure the value of that enthusiasm.”
Abortion could play larger in state races
Not everybody is expecting a new wave of voters to stream to the polls.
“Abortion politics is already baked in,” Republican consultant Stan Barnes told me. “The issue on the ballot by itself, in the midst of everything else that’s happening, will not have the kind of meaningful impact on turnout that some are hoping for.People who care about that issue in a way that would drive turnout are people that are already voting.”
Where it could make a difference, he says, is in smaller legislative races in competitive districts that are key to control of the Legislature. (Keep your eye on Sen. Shawnna Bolick, who is being challenged by Democratic Rep. Judy Schwiebert in north Phoenix.)
Don’t look for Democrats to sail to victory in this still-red(ish) state. But putting abortion rights on the ballot certainly puts a bit of wind at their backs.
Already a slight breeze appears to be blowing.
A new poll by Cook Political ReportSwing State Project shows Kamala Harris with a two-point lead over Trump in Arizona. Previously, the poll had shown Trump with a one-point lead over Biden.
Border measure won't bring GOP more votes
Republican consultant Chuck Coughlin said the abortion-rights proposition makes this year’s elections “more challenging” for candidates like Trump and Lake.
“Their opponents will want to adopt the election narrative that this election is about reproductive freedom,” he said. “The electoral coalition that supports that is 100% of a (Kamala) Harris/(Ruben) Gallego coalition. Trump and Lake’s electoral coalition is divided.”
It’s difficult to see how there is any good news here for Republicans.
They do have their own ballot proposition aimed at getting voters to the polls, a border crackdown that turns the local police into immigration cops. But border hardliners already were likely planning to vote.
“The problem for Republican candidates is, the abortion initiative is likely to pump between $50 million and $100 million into the campaign,” Republican consultant Barrett Marson told me. “That will energize voters on this issue. Republicans have to hope voters don’t hold it against them if they oppose abortion.”
No doubt, they’re hoping voters forget that spring battle at the state Capitol, when Republicans voted against the repeal of that 1864 law mandating prison for any doctor who performs an abortion unless it’s to save the life of the mother.
Did initiative drafters overreach?
Five Republicans — four of whom face competitive races this fall — sided with Democrats to instead reinstate a 15-week abortion ban.
It’s easy to see why.
Already voters in seven states, including four red ones, have sent a message that the right to abortion should be protected in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that said the U.S. Constitution protected a right to abortion.
Why Republicans:Should worry about abortion initiative
Arizona now joins seven other states in putting abortion protections on this year’s ballot.The Arizona Abortion Access Act, like most of the others, would make abortion a constitutional right until the point of fetal viability and, in certain circ*mstances, beyond.
Not everybody considers it a slam dunk to pass.
“The far right is to blame for this initiative because they left that 1864 law out there lingering as a boogeyman,” Republican consultant Tyler Montague told me. “But maybe the draft of this ballot initiative overreached when they went for 24 weeks,” referring to the general point of fetal viability.
Trump may regret sending this back to states
Look for Democrats to make abortion the centerpiece of the fall campaign and for Republicans to change the subject.
Lake, during her 2022 run for governor, called abortion “the ultimate sin.” Shortly before the Supreme Court tossed Roe that year, Lake said she looked forward to the return of Arizona’s 1864 abortion ban.
“I’m incredibly thrilled that we are going to have a great law that’s already on the books,” she said in a June 2022 interview.
This spring, Lake lobbied the Legislature to repeal that “great law.” These days, she will say only that she wouldn’t support a federal law to ban that which she sees as the “ultimate sin.”
Same goes for Trump, whose Supreme Court choices are the reason women no longer have a constitutional right to control their own bodies.
“Roe v. Wade ... wasn’t about abortion so much as bringing it back to the states,” he said this spring.
Well, now it’s back.
In Arizona, at least, he should be careful what he wished for.
Reach Roberts atlaurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) at@LaurieRobertsazand on Threads at@LaurieRobertsaz.
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