Opinion | How These 10 Democrats Would Fare Against Trump, Rated by Our Columnists and Writers (2024)

Harris has a feeble electoral track record — she struggled badly in 2020 and barely, before then, won her first attorney general race in California — but she’ll benefit from a likely unified Democratic establishment, and she can forcefully press the case against Trump on abortion rights. It won’t hurt that she’d be the nation’s first female president and only the second nonwhite politician to occupy the Oval Office.

Harris is the clear favorite to win the nomination and would allow the easiest transition to a new candidate. She has no demonstrated appeal to swing voters, and she cannot run away from the Biden-Harris record on inflation and immigration. Her best arguments are that she’s not old and she’s not Trump. And those might be enough to win.

As the sitting vice president, she is the only serious contender for the nomination. The party, it appears, is already falling in line. She is a stronger, more confident campaigner than you remember, and if Democrats are united behind her coming out of the convention — and the enthusiasm for her is already palpable — then she will be formidable going into the fall.

She’s got the energy of “not very elderly,” and she’d be competing in front of a nation that has long called for a “not very elderly” presidential option.

A mediocre politician from a deep-blue state with low national approval ratings, she may find a way to win, but she would be nobody’s top choice were she not the top choice of the president. Relief at Biden’s exit will generate a lot of professed enthusiasm, but it will be fake.

Harris can bring a shellshocked party together quickly, and she’s superb in prosecuting the case against Trump. Other candidates might seem more electable in a vacuum, but as Harris would put it, “We exist in the context of all in which we live and what came before us.” Anyone else would leave lasting intraparty animosities.

Trump sees Harris as a threat if she can be bold. If Harris relentlessly argues, “You can’t trust Donald Trump” on abortion, Obamacare, tax cuts and jobs, he will have to spend time and money rebutting her and antagonizing abortion opponents and other MAGAites. But can Harris be her boldest self?

Even Biden fans see Harris as one of the weakest elements of his administration. A country desperate for change would bristle at the feeling that once again, real democratic choice is being sidelined in favor of the most deserving insider. And Harris is a fundamentally weak candidate. She fizzled out early in her first presidential run and floundered in the vice presidency.

Whitmer has won two tough elections in her home state, she’s got the “Big Gretch” Midwestern persona, and she could, like Harris, make history. Coastal Democrats already fawn over her cable TV appearances.

Whitmer has twice won races for governor in a swing state by a roughly 10-point margin both times. She is likable and down-to-earth, with a demonstrated ability to outrun “generic Democrat” in the Rust Belt. She’d be the ideal nominee for a race that’s likely to come down to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The governor of Michigan has a lot of fans (“Big Gretch”), and she is clearly a politician of presidential caliber. But I will not be surprised if she endorses Harris in short order as well.

She’s a very successful politician in Michigan in part because the Michigan G.O.P. is a box of rabid cats locked in a closet. Not sure how she’d do nationally.

Probably the sweet-spot candidate in terms of both exciting the party’s voters and winning the key swing states; she would almost surely win a secret ballot of party insiders.

The incredibly effective and telegenic governor of a must-win state, Whitmer would be my dream candidate if we were starting from scratch. But we’re not, and besides, lots of candidates have looked amazing on paper but floundered on the national stage. She’d make a thrilling V.P. choice, though.

Trump’s team worries a lot about Whitmer. She’s got a good record, political message and personal story, and she’s a fresh face with a Midwest base. She would not own Bidenomics and Gaza like Biden-Harris. But would her Michigan appeal scale up nationally? You don’t know till you know.

Whitmer is moderate and reasonably likable, but she doesn’t come across as a superstar. Her politics are more attuned to the national electorate. I see her as a V.P. candidate to a candidate other than Harris or as a presidential candidate in 2028.

Newsom has steadily raised his profile with reliable Democrats, and he’s a flashy, agile debater on television. He’s a cutthroat political operator — Democrats could use that — but California’s various maladies, like a persistent housing crisis, will be laid at his feet.

Newsom’s red meat delights MSNBC viewers, but there’s nothing about him that helps win over swing voters. He’s also personally sleazy — check out the video of him apologizing for sleeping with his campaign manager’s wife back when he was mayor of San Francisco — and looks like a 1980s movie villain. Nominating him would be a serious mistake.

I am not especially impressed by Newsom, and I wonder if he could survive the vetting received by a candidate for national office. However, normie Democrats love him. Either way, it does not matter, because he’s already endorsed Harris.

I don’t think he’d generate any enthusiasm — he’s scary.

He is feared by conservatives but unloved by liberals. His ambition almost certainly exceeds his grasp.

He looks the part and is great on the attack, but he’d have to answer for every problem plaguing California.

Trump sees Newsom as beatable because of his potential image problem with swing voters (slick, California liberal, showboater). I also have a hard time seeing a white man uniting the Democrats if it means beating a Black woman who is the sitting vice president. Newsom plays a long game; 2028 is his play.

Newsom comes across as too slick, too changeable, too political. California will go blue no matter what, so he doesn’t add anything electorally. And California has been an unending source of negative news in recent years. If it’s true that California trends tend to lead the nation, most voters do not want to go in that direction.

Warnock is the rare Democrat who can excite the Black working class and white liberals alike. He’s battle-tested in Georgia, and he’s well versed in courting Republicans and swing voters. And he has been the longtime pastor at the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s legendary Atlanta church.

Warnock would be a strong candidate in the abstract, but if he left the Senate, the Republican governor of Georgia would appoint a Republican successor to him, so he’s not a practical choice for president or vice president right now.

I do not know if Warnock has presidential ambitions, although he has presidential-level speaking skills. With James Clyburn and the Congressional Black Caucus behind Harris, however, I would be surprised if he broke ranks to try to challenge her for the nomination.

Won in Georgia, twice. So we know he can generate enthusiasm.

More charismatic but less moderate-coded than Whitmer, which is why many people like to imagine him as her vice president.

He’s eloquent, unifying and inspiring, but Democrats would be nuts to give up a Georgia Senate seat.

Warnock is a political talent but still a relative unknown among voters nationally. In his home state, Georgia, he could beat Trump, but Trump has many paths to victory elsewhere. Warnock has also endorsed Harris, a Black woman looking to make history.

Warnock’s background as a religious leader and an activist is not typical for a presidential candidate for a reason. On the issues, Warnock is too progressive for a deeply polarized party in which more Democrats and more independents would welcome a more traditionally liberal or more moderate candidate.

Kelly is a former astronaut who has proved he can survive in Arizona. Unlike his colleague Kyrsten Sinema, he has found a way to appeal to moderates and Republicans without abandoning Democrats in the Senate.

Voters love astronauts, and Kelly, who has a compelling personal story, has performed well in a swing state. But this election is going to be fought more in the Rust Belt than in the Sun Belt. He is a possible contender for V.P.

Kelly is as close as one can get to an almost generic Democratic nominee for president. If what the public wants is a generic Democrat, then I suppose he can win. It’s worth saying, however, that he has already endorsed the vice president.

He’s an astronaut, for Pete’s sake.

A moderate, faintly boring astronaut from a swing state, he might be the best choice on pure electability but probably not a choice to win a contested convention.

Trump would have a hard time making this contest a referendum on machismo if he were running against a real live astronaut.

He has a compelling story but doesn’t have the national profile, political identity or money to catch fire (and he has endorsed Harris). The astronaut image is cool but didn’t do much for John Glenn in the 1984 presidential race. Kelly may not have the juice to carry even Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota and Maine.

As a former astronaut and a former military pilot, Kelly fits well into the heroic model Americans look for in a presidential candidate. He is also personally very appealing, always conscientious of his wife in public. And he could be a real moral force on gun control. He would also be a strong vice-presidential candidate, should Harris lead the ticket.

Murphy, to his credit, is the rare Democrat in a deep-blue state who has thought hard about what it takes to court the working-class voters fleeing the Democratic Party. But he’s not terribly well known outside Connecticut and hasn’t had a competitive election in more than a decade.

Murphy is youthful and likable but hasn’t built the same sort of profile as other more likely contenders for the nomination.

I didn’t realize Murphy wanted to be president. I guess he could win. I have no strong feelings here.

No one from Connecticut has ever generated enthusiasm.

One of the more thoughtful and outreach-oriented Democratic senators but neither a highly electable moderate nor an exciting firebrand, so probably not the right figure for this moment.

Murphy is a handsome white guy who has done lots of outreach to struggling working-class communities, and he has a great record on gun violence. He’d be a favorite in a ranked-choice system because he’s broadly acceptable and inoffensive.

A strong ideas leader in the Democratic Party, but he is not well known among voters in battleground states and lacks a convincing argument why it would have to be him instead of Harris, Shapiro or another Democrat with the profile, swing-state pedigree, celebrity or money to make the race. (He has endorsed Harris.)

Murphy is largely unknown to most Americans, which could be an advantage, though hailing from Connecticut will probably not help broaden his appeal. Connecticut is also one of the wealthiest states in the country, with some pockets of the most persistent poverty. Murphy’s youth and lack of national stature are a risk, and he may be too progressive for many Americans right now.

Unlike Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire who ran for president in 2020, Pritzker has a warm relationship with the left after racking up an impressive number of liberal policy wins in Illinois. But he’s untested beyond his home state and largely unknown to voters beyond the Midwest.

Pritzker has lots of money, but I don’t really understand the enthusiasm around him otherwise. There are other Rust Belt governors with more impressive track records of winning and governing.

There is a future in which the Illinois governor is the standard-bearer for progressive Democrats. But that future probably isn’t this fall. Still, I would keep my eye on him for 2028.

Should stay exactly where he is.

The rich governor of a famously corrupt blue state — what could go wrong?

He’s a pugilistic progressive from the Midwest and a billionaire who could put enormous resources into the race.

The Trump team worries that his considerable wealth and blunt style could make him surprisingly formidable, but he’s relatively unknown nationally, and there’s less of a rationale for him than for Shapiro and Whitmer.

I see Pritzker as a vice-presidential candidate more than a presidential one. The unfortunate rise of antisemitism in this country (see: Shapiro) makes a Jewish presidential candidate a hard sell right now. Given the current populist leanings of the electorate and the sense that many Americans are being left out right now, this also probably isn’t the time to run as the beneficiary of enormous inherited wealth.

Beshear is the dream candidate for centrists everywhere — he’s a Democrat winning in heavily Republican Kentucky — and there’s a reason he will likely be on V.P. shortlists. Only Kentuckians and Democratic insiders have heard of him, though, and he’d need a compelling narrative for a serious presidential campaign.

Beshear is young, handsome and good at winning elections in places Democrats aren’t supposed to. He’s also shown how abortion-rights politics can be winning for Democrats even in red states. Still, a swing-state governor like Whitmer or Shapiro would probably be more useful for the electoral map.

Beshear has given no indication that he is interested in running for president at this moment. And he doesn’t have much of a national following. If I were to imagine a strong vice-presidential nominee for Harris, however, Beshear would be near the top of my list.

A Kentucky Democrat is very exciting in theory but probably not in reality.

Moderate enough to be a good general-election candidate but too moderate to win an intraparty fight.

It takes a very skilled politician to win as a Democrat in Kentucky, and he’s been great on abortion rights. I hope Harris, who is almost certainly going to be the nominee, considers him for V.P.

Yes, he’s the rare red-state governor, but that doesn’t mean he can unite and energize the moderates, liberals, progressives, independents and undecideds in a matter of weeks. His appeal as a presidential candidate is more theoretical at this point.

Beshear is very appealing as the young governor of a conservative Southern state who recently won re-election. He shows that it’s possible to sell liberal positions to a more conservative state in a way that bodes well on a national level. He would be a formidable opponent for Trump and could easily sway independents and even Republicans disgusted by Trump’s enduring awfulness.

Moore, who is just 45, will inevitably draw comparisons to Barack Obama. Moore is a Rhodes scholar who rapidly scaled the heights of Maryland politics and would be, if elected, America’s second Black president. He’s not yet well known nationally, however, and has had to court only Maryland’s more moderate, Trump-skeptical Republican contingent.

In the days after the debate, when other governors like Massachusetts’s Maura Healey were trying to save the party from a Biden-led disaster, Moore issued one of the most fulsome and over-the-top defenses of Biden staying in the race that I saw from any Democrat. I found this very off-putting and disingenuous, and I think Moore needs more seasoning before he considers entering a presidential race.

A strong, talented governor who will almost certainly run for president at some point in the future. But as with almost everyone with that ambition in the Democratic Party right now, I doubt that he’ll mount a challenge to Harris.

Another governor who should just keep being governor.

Maryland’s most notable Democratic politician since Martin O’Malley — and just as likely to be president.

Moore could easily be president someday but probably not after only a little over a year as governor.

A strong leader, a new face and a rising star in the party, but making the leap from first-term governor of a safe-blue state to winning presidential candidate is very hard to do. And he’s untested in national politics and against a ruthless opponent like Trump.

Moore’s greatest flaw is his governmental inexperience, but he has a wide range of other experiences in the military, the nonprofit world and business. He is a unifying, charismatic figure who could inspire the electorate in a similar way that Obama did — as the promise of positive change but someone with a pragmatic and nonideological mind-set.

Shapiro won a huge victory in Pennsylvania, proving he knows how to stump in a swing state. He’s a popular center-left Democrat who’d be the nation’s first Jewish president. If he’s not the nominee, he’d be an ideal running mate; it helps that, unlike his fellow Pennsylvanian John Fetterman, Shapiro hasn’t picked too many fights with the left.

Shapiro and Whitmer are very similar on paper: swing-state governors with a strong demonstrated ability to appeal to voters in the middle and win, often by wide margins. Shapiro also impressively presided over a lightning-quick rebuild of damaged Interstate 95 in Philadelphia and showed sober leadership in the aftermath of the assassination attempt on Trump. A Whitmer-Shapiro ticket could make a lot of sense to win the Rust Belt.

Shapiro is, next to Beshear, the other obvious choice to be Harris’s running mate. And with a real national fan base among Democrats, he could also probably beat Trump in his own right.

Exceptionally normal. That’s a good thing.

Maybe the most talented of the Democratic governors but in line behind Whitmer at the moment.

He could help deliver the essential state of Pennsylvania, but his ardent support for Israel and criticism of pro-Gaza campus protests would reopen wounds in the Democratic Party that have lately started to heal.

Trump advisers see him as formidable. Pennsylvania and Michigan are Democrats’ most urgent must-win states, and he could compete strongly against Trump in both. But would his popularity at home translate nationally? Also: He’s already endorsed Harris. Many top Democrats see him as her V.P. pick.

Shapiro would be an excellent vice-presidential candidate, but given the unfortunate but real antisemitism on the left right now (as well as on the right), this may not be the right time for a Jewish Democratic presidential candidate. As a V.P. candidate, he could bring Democrats the swing state of Pennsylvania.