The Best Round-by-Round Values in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts (2024)

There's only one word that matters in fantasy football: championship. As the great Vince Lombardi allegedly said, "If winning isn't everything, then why do they keep score?"

You thought I was gonna use the other one. Admit it.

But there's another word, one that is more vital than any other to whether your fantasy draft is cause for celebration or reason for despair.

No, that word isn't "nachos," although they don't hurt.

It's "value."

Success in fantasy drafts is all about obtaining value in as many rounds as possible—choosing players who outperform their draft slots. Getting a running back in Round 4 who performs like a first-rounder is a big boost.

Getting that guy in Round 7 is how leagues are won.

The cold reality is that you won't get that value in every round. But the more rounds you get value in, the better off your chances are entering the season.

The ADP data these selections are based on is going to start moving rapidly. Hundreds of drafts every day in August will do that. And this exercise wasn't conducted with building a full roster in mind—something you'll have to do when the big day arrives.

But each of the players listed in this column is a good bet to offer value in fantasy drafts.

And all should be on your radar as you eat those nachos.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions (ADP: 8)

Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Detroit Lions wasn't the first wide receiver drafted in 2021. Or the fifth. Or the 10th. But in three short seasons, St. Brown has shown to be the steal of that year's draft at the position—last year, he was fifth among all wideouts in targets, third in receptions with 119, third in receiving yards with 1,515, fourth in touchdown catches with 10 and third in PPR fantasy points among wideouts.

This year, St. Brown is coming off draft boards fifth amongwide receivers. But JameyEisenberg of CBS Sports sees a path to St. Brown finishing higher than that—sayas the overall WR1.

"St. Brown has been exceptional since joining the Lions in 2021, and his Fantasy production has increased every season from 13.4 PPR points per game to 16.7 to 20.7 last year," he wrote. "We hope his third-year breakout campaign in 2023 will continue to be the norm, and he was among six receivers last season to average at least 10 targets per game. The Lions have 64 vacated targets with Josh Reynolds now in Denver. While most of those should be distributed to the rest of Detroit's receiving corps -- with most of it hopefully going to Jameson Williams -- St. Brown might get even more attention from Jared Goff. Ben Johnson remaining as the offensive coordinator for the Lions is a plus, and St. Brown feels like one of the safest selections in Round 1 this year."

The last thing fantasy managers want is for their first pick to fail to meet expectations. Barring an injury, there's next to no chance that St. Brown will do that.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 19)

At 30 years old, Derrick Henry is well past the age when many running backs start to decline. But if last year's 1,167 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns in Tennessee are any indication, "King Henry" isn't ready for the scrap heap just yet.

Now, Henry finds himself as the lead back for the Baltimore Ravens. And Derek Brown of Fantasy Pros sees a clear path to another big season from the ninth-year veteran.

"I have not been the most staunch supporter of Derrick Henry in the past, but I have changed my tune this year," Brown said. "The King has not fallen off at all in terms of efficiency after ranking ninth in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact last year, per Fantasy Points Data. Now, he's in Baltimore in a run-first offense with a mobile quarterback who will open up running lanes. The Ravens will ride King Henry all year, and it will be glorious. I will confidently draft him as an RB1 for my fantasy teams and pounce on him in any drafts where he slips a few picks past ADP."

There have been six seasons in which Henry carried the ball 215 or more times. In all six of those seasons, Henry found the end zone at least 10 times on the ground. In four of those seasons, Henry finished as a top-10 running back. No team in the league was better running the ball last year than the Ravens—and now they have their best back (by a fair margin) of the Lamar Jackson era.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 35)

It's not that difficult to see why fantasy managers aren't overflowing with enthusiasm about Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White. Last season, White managed just 3.6 yards per carry and ranked 42nd in the league in yards after contact per attempt.

But White was also tied with Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers for the second-most carries in the league and finished the season fourth in PPR fantasy points.

The Buccaneers didn't make any major changes in the backfield this year outside adding a Day 3 rookie in Bucky Irving. That should equate to another heavy workload for White in 2024, and Jonathon Macri of Pro Football Focus opined that even a small increase in per-touch efficiency could lead White to be a darkhorse challenger to finish as fantasy's overall RB1.

"White's workload is going to be the greatest key to his getting back in that top-five range, where 15.8 carries per game and 4.1 targets per game is about the ideal threshold we're looking for," Macri said. "What held White back last season was that he wasn't overly efficient with his touches, earning just a 69.5 PFF rushing grade (35th) and producing 0.15 missed forced tackles per attempt (tied for 31st) and a 17% first down-plus-touchdown per carry rate (tied for 55th). Improving as a runner in Year 3 will surely help those efficiency numbers and could be a significant key to add to his already elite workload in delivering an overall RB1 finish."

An overall RB1 finish would make White a league-winner in Round 3. But even if all he does is match his 2023 fantasy production, he'd be great value in this spot.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 47)

Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith is the Robin to A.J. Brown's Batman in the Philadelphia offense. But that hasn't stopped Smith from being a productive fantasy asset. He has surpassed the 1,000-yard mark each of the past two seasons, finishing ninth in PPR points among wide receivers in 2022 and 16th a year ago.

There's a new offensive coordinator in Philadelphia this season in Kellen Moore, and Adam Pfeifer of FTN expects Smith to be a big beneficiary of Moore's motion-heavy offense.

"With Moore in Los Angeles," Pfeifer said, "Keenan Allen was in pre-snap motion a healthy 25.9% of the time, one of the highest rates among qualified receivers. I expect Moore to move his two star receivers around a lot more, not only creating advantageous opportunities for Smith and Brown, but layups for Hurts, who averaged the fourth-fewest yards of separation per pass attempt in 2023 (1.64). And while Smith is unlikely to simply see the identical role that we've seen from Allen and CeeDee Lamb in this offense, I do believe Moore will move him into the slot more in 2024. For his career, Smith has operated from the slot just 23.2% of the time. Expect Smith to see more free releases off motion, as well as more time from the slot to create easier completions for Hurts, on top of still getting plenty of looks deep down the field."

Smith is coming off the board 23rd among wide receivers this year—a full seven slots behind his 2023 finish. In other words, he's a value here even if all he does is repeat last year's 81/1,066/7 line.

Anything more than that? Tasty gravy.

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: 59)

The Pittsburgh Steelers made massive changes to the passing game in the offseason. Quarterback Kenny Pickett was sent packing and replaced by a combo platter of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Wide receiver Diontae Johnson was also shipped off to Carolina, making third-year pro George Pickens the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver in the Steel City.

Per Dalton Del Don of Yahoo Sports, that could mean the proverbial third-year breakout for Pickens—because when Johnson wasn't on the field last year, Pickens ate—well.

Pickens' full season's pace without Diontae Johnson on the field last season was 72 catches for 1,517 yards and nine touchdowns on 140 targets. He registered a 38.4% first-read target rate over those four games without Johnson, when Pickens' targets per route run rate (24.1%) ranked top-20, and his yards per route run (2.93) ranked top-five. Pickens' end-zone target share also jumped to 42% with Johnson off the field. Pickens' yards per target (10.27) ranks second among all wide receivers over the last three years, and now he gets to play without Johnson for a full season. Moreover, Russell Wilson will be an upgrade over Pittsburgh's quarterback play last season, as Kenny Pickett owns the lowest TD% (1.8) among 391 quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts in NFL history."

Pickens finished last season with over 1,100 receiving yards and was 28th in PPR points among wide receivers last year despite Pickett's putrid play. Now he's the top dog in the Pittsburgh passing game with a better quarterback.

Yet he's being drafted in the same spot he finished last season in.

Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 67)

Last season, Jaguars tight end Evan Engram had the kind of season that fantasy managers had been waiting for since the 29-year-old entered the league in 2017. He posted career-highs in targets (143), receptions (114) and receiving yards (963). Engram led all tight ends in targets and catches, ranked third in receiving yards at the position and had more PPR points than any tight end in the AFC.

However, Engram averaged a career-low 8.4 yards per catch a season ago, and per Michael DiRocco of ESPN, Engram wants to be more of a downfield threat in his third year in Jacksonville.

"Making more explosive plays, downfield, more touchdowns, being a bigger red zone target, Engram said. Those are my goals. I think that can take it to a whole other level. I want to keep going, I want even more. It's definitely really cool to put two great seasons together back-to-back. And when you look at the greats that have been through this game that are in the game now, they do that year after year and I definitely feel I'm in the place to be able to do that, in the system to do that, the coaches, the quarterback, the team to continue to do that.

The Jags have some new faces at wide receiver in veteran Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas, Jr. But the team also lost Calvin Ridley in free agency, so there's no reason to think that Engram's target share is suddenly going to plummet.

As the eighth tight end being drafted on average, Engram is significantly undervalued.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (ADP: 74)

This analyst has long been a proponent of patience at the quarterback position in fantasy leagues that start just one—it's a rarity to see a Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson on my roster in that format. The reason is simple—the value is in the QB6-QB10 range.

The past two seasons haven't been especially kind to Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray—after signing a big contract extension in 2022 Murray suffered an ACL tear that cost him chunks of both that season and the one that followed. However, Jeremy Shulman of Fantasy Football Universe questioned recently if those disappointing seasons haven't dropped Murray's ADP too far.

"Murray is still being overlooked by the fantasy community at QB10," he said. "While it's unlikely he will finish as the overall QB1, his rushing upside leaves the door open as a possibility. However, with Trey McBride ascending and the addition of the best wide receiver prospect in a few years in Marvin Harrison Jr., the Cardinals offense promises to take a leap. Add in the fact that the Cards D should once again be suspect, and Murray will be required to keep pace for Arizona to remain competitive in games. If he remains healthy, I love Murray's value and I'm absolutely taking him at cost for his massive fantasy upside."

Rushing upside. Improved passing-game options relative to last year. The very real chance that Murray will be playing catch-up on a regular basis—and the pass-heavy game scripts that come with it.

All the ingredients are there for Murray to smash his seventh-round asking price.

Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants (ADP: 96)

When the New York Giants elected to replace the departed Saquon Barkley at running back with Devin Singletary, it left both fans of Big Blue and fantasy managers…unenthusiastic. However, the 26-year-old told reporters that he doesn't feel any more pressure than usual in stepping into the role as New York's No. 1 running back.

"There is no pressure, man," Singletary said. "It's football. I've been doing this my whole life… It's been working for me so far, so I'm going to keep doing that. I'm just going to be myself, man. All this work I put in, I'm just going to enjoy the process. That's where I'm at with it."

Singletary also said that being reunited with Brian Daboll (who he played with in Buffalo) gives him a leg up on success in the season to come.

"It's like being back with family," Singletary said. "As far as the offense, it's just fresh in my memory. It's all love and I'm enjoying it. I'm glad I'm back here… In Buffalo, you saw it with (Daboll's) aura and his swag, how he went about his business, you knew he would be a head coach one day."

Singletary has surpassed 1,000 total yards in three straight seasons. He has averaged a highly respectable 4.6 yards per carry for his career—more than Barkley. He showed last year in Houston he can be a featured back. And Singletary was 19th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt a year ago per Fantasy Points Data.

He's a "Zero RB" drafter's dream target in 2024.

Round 9: Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: 107)

In fairness, Edwards probably isn't going to score 13 rushing touchdowns again, and while he had a career-high in carries last season in Baltimore he also averaged a career-low 4.1 yards per tote. But Edwards is the lead back on a Chargers team sure to lean heavily on the run under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, and his chief competition for touches is a Day 3 rookie.

Round 10: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 112)

Last year, Tagovailoa threw for more passing yards than any quarterback in the NFL on the way to a QB9 fantasy finish. In Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Tagovailoa has arguably the best one-two wideout punch in the NFL at his disposal. And yet, he's being selected as a fantasy backup. If you're the type who likes to play "QB chicken" and be the last manager in the league to take one, Tagovailoa should be on your draft-day radar.

Round 11: Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns (ADP: 122)

Granted, much of Ford's value is contingent on the health of Nick Chubb, who tore his ACL two games into the 2023 season. But Ford showed enough as Cleveland's lead back last year (over 1,100 total yards and nine scores) to seemingly earn the trust of Cleveland's coaching staff, and fantasy managers who roll the dice on Chubb in Round 8 would be well-advised to buy this inexpensive insurance policy. The Browns are going to run the ball--well.

Round 12: Mike Williams, WR, New York Jets (ADP: 137)

Durability has long been an issue for Williams—he has missed 18 games over the past two seasons and is coming back from an ACL tear suffered three weeks into the 2023 campaign. But Williams is expected to be ready for the start of the regular season, he has a pair of 1,000-yard seasons on his professional resume, and the 6'4", 218-pounder offers Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers a big-bodied target in the red zone opposite Garrett Wilson.

Round 13: Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 146)

Hubbard spent a significant portion of last season as the lead back for the Panthers, eclipsing 1,100 total yards, catching 39 passes and finding the end zone five times. Carolina drafted Jonathon Brooks to be the future in the backfield in Charlotte, but Brooks is coming off an ACL tear, so when he'll potentially take the reins for the Panthers remains in question.

Round 14: Brandin Cooks, WR, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 162)

Cooks' first season in Dallas wasn't especially impressive—54 catches on 81 targets for 657 yards. But the 30-year-old has reportedly impressed in camp with CeeDee Lamb sidelined by a contract dispute, eight of those catches last season went for touchdowns and given the massive question mark that is the Cowboys ground game Dallas could easily be among the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL In 2024.

Round 15: Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 169)

Thielen turned back the clock for the Panthers as the WR1 for the Panthers in 2023, catching 103 passes, posting 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2018 and finishing as a top-20 fantasy receiver. The Panthers brought in veteran Diontae Johnson and rookie Xavier Legette this offseason, but when Carolina quarterback Bryce Young got in trouble last year, it was Thielen's direction he looked in first.

Round 16: DeMario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots (ADP: 186)

That the leading receiver for the Patriots last season is barely being drafted at all in 16-round fantasy drafts tells you everything you need to know about how fantasy managers feel about New England's passing "attack." But Douglas somehow remains the No. 1 wideout for a team that will all but certainly be playing catch-up (or just playing out beatdowns) with regularity. Championships have been won with cheaply-obtained garbage-time points.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.